As we close to October, men and women have grow to be even much more sensitive when it comes to the truth. In the coming elections, exactly where is the October surprise going to be? How will the truth, or the acquiring of it rather, influence it? In this episode, Bill Stierle and Tom get ideal down to it. They speak about each and every of Joe Biden’s and Donald Trump’s camps, how they frame their messages, counteract them, and prepare for that October surprise. Plus, they also go over the current rumor of Donald Trump becoming presented the CEO position for Fox News. How will the truth be told in that scenario? Who can we trust? Bill and Tom answer these concerns and much more.
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Truth, The October Surprise, And Donald Trump As CEO For Fox News
Bill, we’re in the middle of convention season for the Democrats and the Republicans. There appears to be a lot of polls that are indicating that Joe Biden has a lead even beyond any margins of errors, if you think polls. I know a lot of men and women do not think polls. At this time of year just after conventions, there’s constantly a convention bounce for each and every candidate. Then issues returned to typical in terms of polling. There are a lot of ifs in this statement, if the voting program performs, if every single vote is counted. There is not a important surprise Joe Biden is most likely to win the election now. There’s constantly a danger of an October surprise. There are a lot of theories about this. Everyone is waiting for that October surprise. When is that shoe going to drop? We’ve had some in the previous.
The need to have for truth and trust is so sensitive. Persons are searching for stability with truth and trust. They’d rather go with a bias, some thing I’ve voted for in the previous, rather than say, “Let me stare that point down. Could that even be doable? I trust this particular person, but does not this message appear like it is a small timely or out of spot?” As soon as you get the confused thoughts, the thoughts that is in the state of doubt, confused, skeptical, hesitant, the voter will default to the elephant brain or to the habit brain and will vote in that path. They’re waiting for that one particular small piece of proof that they place on their side like, “I’m going with this guy rather than this gal.” That is a small bit about what occurred with James Comey backtracking on, “We identified this other set of databases. We do not know, so we’re going to investigate this other point on Hillary’s e-mail.” Right after the election, “I’m sorry, we didn’t come across something.” It was like, “You do not know what you did. What you did is build the doubt and skepticism for the voter.”
That doubt and skepticism triggered the particular person to go like, “I’m not certain I do not want to vote for this particular person. I’m voting for this particular person due to the fact this particular person is claiming that they know the true answer. I’m going to take their self-confidence as truth.” Notice he does not sell truth. He sells self-confidence. He sells, “I know I’m wealthy. I know how to handle significant dollars.” All of the men and women about him know he does not know how to handle significant dollars. He does not know how to be mindful, turn a profit, build the worth that desires to be developed. He would compromise. He didn’t do any of these issues. The challenge when we get to the October surprise is that it is the one particular small grain of rice that gets moved more than to one particular side from a propaganda position that says, “Here’s the piece of proof that I need to have.”
I watch advertisements and videos and issues on each sides. I watch each groups of men and women place out their messaging. I’m going like, “It’s a bunch of videos that are clipped collectively about Joe Biden.” “What occurred to Joe Biden? is one particular of the most recent Republican videos. The answer is he’s older than he utilised to be. This is what occurred to Joe Biden, just like your guy. You are taking years of video footage from him and going like, “These are the small clip snippets.” If we want to edit the worst issues we say out, this is editing the worst issues in to build a message that is not totally accurate about the particular person. It has a partial truth to it, but it is not totally accurate due to the fact of the way the video has been edited.
The Democrats are guilty of the identical point with Donald Trump. They take his greatest worst hits and place them collectively and make him appear absurdly absurd. They all do that. I do not believe the age debate is going to land quite effectively. They’re each old. Joe Biden’s camp ought to be placing out a video displaying him riding a bicycle, performing some physical exercising and Donald Trump gingerly stepping down the ramp at that military graduation, but they haven’t completed that surprisingly.
It could be an October surprise. It is the grain of sand principle. It is like, “I’m moving this small grain of sand more than right here due to the fact I’m going to tip the scale of the ten% of the voters.” They know they struggle with the men and women on something on the other side of moderate. Each sides struggle with that. We’re not going to get the men and women more than right here due to the fact their bias is deeply entrenched on the other side poor. They’re searching for proof of the other side poor as an alternative of going other side men and women. We’re men and women right here. They’re men and women there. What is their point of view once more? That is a vibrant democracy is these are men and women attempting to go over tough challenges. Let’s preserve our eye on the ball right here, but they can not preserve their eye on the ball due to the fact their limbic brain, their elephant brain is saying, “I’m going with what I have invested in, loyal to and what I know not necessarily to what’s accurate.”
Persons are searching for stability with truth and trust. They’d rather go with a bias. Click To Tweet
That is the point that is also quite upsetting in this course of action of issues as well. How do we take a appear at the propaganda messages and figure out exactly where the October surprise is going to be? Is it going to be a message like, “I have the vaccine, I got it from Russia. They are assisting us with this. It shows that we can perform collectively with foreign nations?” There’s a third of the men and women that will instantaneously think him, no concerns asked, “I have a connection with, I can perform with.” There’s a further third of the men and women going like, “What are you performing?” You are telling your third a message that is not in the wellbeing of America. It is also not in the wellbeing of truth due to the fact it is going to magically disappear just like all the other promises that you created for us. It is the third and the middle that I’m scared about. It is like how a great deal of them are going to go to, “Let’s take a further likelihood on this guy?” How lots of of them are going to go like, “I’m not taking a further likelihood on this guy?”
How lots of of them are going to take the bait? That is what it is, bait. It is attempting to win them back more than, “If you do not think I achieved almost everything I mentioned I was going to do the initially time, this is going to be some thing you are going to want to preserve me about for due to the fact without the need of me, you are not going to get this vaccine.” That is what he’s going to attempt to say.
“Joe Biden does not have a connection with Vladimir Putin the way I have a connection with Vladimir Putin. That is going to reduce off our probabilities of obtaining the vaccine that we need to have.” I can visualize some narrative that is equivalent to that coming out. They’re going to appear at what are the issues that we’re going to fly out week-more than-week. This is a ground game. This is a block and tackle. To use the football metaphor, “I’m operating off tackling. You have got to see if you can cease me. By the way, I’m going to preserve pounding you with this message. You are weak on that side. I’m going to give a further message and we’re going to pound on the other side with a new message.”
That would be a potent October surprise or a potent try at an October surprise. I could see Joe Biden and the Democrats counteracting that saying, “You can go get that vaccine from Russia, Donald Trump, but I’m going to perform with our American pharmaceutical providers right here in the United States and build the most effective.” There’s a way you could make this about the unity of America and coming in. I could nevertheless see him producing that pitch, the October surprise, “I have a vaccine and it came from Russia.”
You set up a straw man that has some truth to it relating to voter fraud. The query is how a great deal of truth does it have? Do unique celebration members do issues on each sides of the aisle to attempt to exclude or not exclude votes and issues like that? Are there efforts that are becoming taken spot in? That would be quite uncomplicated to say yes. There are specific laws, not getting sufficient machines, obtaining rid of machines, obtaining rid of mailboxes. What you are performing is you are obtaining rid of mailboxes. It is like, “How did somebody ever let that come about?” Somebody was told to choose up all these mailboxes, “You can not vote by mail due to the fact you are placing it in. That implies you have to come to the post workplace and then we’re going to understaff them so they have no time to course of action it.”
All of a sudden, we’re dismantling the infrastructure and this is what deregulation does. It is like, “We want to take it apart.” This is the 1980s enterprise garage sale stuff. It is like how this enterprise is vested like, “Let’s break it apart and sell it into pieces. We can make a lot of dollars due to the fact we ruined everybody’s lives and the firms are not viable any longer. We alluded to their pension fund.” These unique messages are that, “I’ve got this handled. Here’s how I’m handling it.” Meanwhile, what’s going on is that there is not a powerful narrative about how to perform as a nation to reside to the worth of one particular particular person, one particular vote. Let’s suppose one particular of an October surprise could be, “I am going to eradicate the point that I’ve been speaking most about. I’m going to figure out how to deal. I have the answer. I have good men and women. I have good technologies. I’m going to resolve the voter fraud issue. Is there a issue or is it a issue issue? How significant is it? What scale does it match?”
The reality that perhaps there is not a great deal of a issue would make it an uncomplicated issue for him to resolve. If he labels it and owns it that he solved it, that is good. It hurts him if he does not win the election if he solved voter fraud. If he wins the election legitimately, then he claims that Monday morning quarterback hero position of getting solved it. If he loses, then he labels the program as tainted and broken. The Democrats killed it and we can not trust it. He desires to be in a position to cast doubt on the voter program if he loses.
“What is my winning narrative so that I am displaying self-confidence and strength?” That self-confidence and strength is the piece of rice I preserve moving across. Every single message that he does is not about truth. It is about moving the rice more than to the other side of the scale. Every single time we’re on this, you take the bait. You go, “Yeah, but how about the reality?” I’m like, “We’re not moving information right here. It does not matter.” You and I can regularly notice the message is the rice that is moved onto one particular side of the scale. The vote and the race tighten due to the fact it is the particular person moving the rice messages more than to the variety of ability to tilt the person’s belief structure in the path they want. That becomes exciting or vibrant.
The message moves some men and women of that middle third more than to his camp to vote for him. The information do not pull them back.
All the voter desires to do to get their vote is to acknowledge one particular point that political leader did for them. Even if they did ten issues that have been against them, they will anchor on the one particular point. It is significant when you take a appear at communication, beliefs and biases is that if we appear at the one particular point that tends to make a significant distinction, it is what beneficial to me as a particular person, as a human becoming. What need to have is that meeting of mine? It meets my need to have for integrity or truth or trust, or it meets my need to have for help or fairness. If all I got to do is place 1 or two of these issues and say, “At least he did this,” it is the identical point with all the unique candidates. We’re becoming quite agnostic right here. It is like this particular person is voting towards the point that it appears like this particular person is confident about this point. Meanwhile, there could be whole wreckage that a point has triggered. Even to the particular person that believes there is not a wreckage piece to it. They’re not necessarily seeing the pros and cons.
The particular person that is producing the choice with the self-confidence, “I created my most effective work. This is what I did for us. This is why we’re far better off.” That is why it does not matter what celebration of what president goes out and does a speaking tour. There will be a lot of men and women in the stadium when the stadiums open up. There are a lot of men and women there to hear them speak due to the fact they’re listening for the reassuring and reinforcing of the message that they voted for, that they’re loyal to in the previous. It is quite exciting and difficult. Could the October surprise be that Joe Biden comes on stage and he introduces all the former presidents and invites them to say a word to all the former presidents, all of them come up and say some thing? That requires that middle third. It does not move the other third. The 35% is going to keep exactly where it is. The 33% stays exactly where it is. It requires that middle third and goes, “Wait a minute.” The ones that are closer to the other side, that brings it into the 49th percentile. It is like how a great deal does it creep more than to the other side and to see what it appears like?
There’s a further possible October surprise that has a unique influence, not a traditional one particular. We’re hearing that Fox News has behind the scenes created an give to Donald Trump to be the CEO of Fox News. Here’s the reality. We all know Donald Trump didn’t anticipate to be president in the initially spot. He’s quite frustrated with the day-to-day briefings and becoming a leader. He desires it completed his way. He hasn’t grown into the job. I do not believe he desires to be there. If he gets to be the arbiter of what is fake news and what’s true news in his thoughts, he would likely appreciate that a complete lot much more. He’d be in the limelight all the time once more, but in a way that he can manage it.
He buys out Rupert Murdoch. He becomes the CEO of Fox. He offers these messages for the way he would like the truth to be told, the way he would like the messages to be crafted and moved. He’s going to keep with the messages that perform. He is a tester and an evaluator of his performances. He watches his stuff and sees what lands, what does not land, what gets applause, what does not get applause, what moves, what does not move, how can I reinforce this, then he moves to the subsequent message. Every single human becoming communicates like they’re throwing spaghetti on the wall. You and I are throwing spaghetti on the wall in a unique way. We like to meet the need to have for integrity or trust and bring our most effective belief structures forward. A lot of occasions, we do not have all the complete data and unique pieces of data show up.
Every single human becoming desires an providing. Every single human becoming desires a spot to transition. Click To Tweet
Donald Trump’s subsequent job, is it going to be the CEO of Fox News or does he go back to the life that he was? I’m not certain if it is going to be pretty as fascinating as it was when was in that position. The men and women calling him to do issues that are as engaged as The Apprentice or some of these other issues in the future. There are possibilities, but every single human becoming desires an off-ramp. Every single human becoming desires a spot to transition, “Here’s my identity right here and here’s my identity more than right here.” Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton are in the identical spot this way. They’re either transitioning into this or they’re transitioning more than there. Hillary Clinton didn’t believe that for 4 years, she would be punching the clock at property becoming a grandma. She didn’t believe that was going to be her job. She knew the other job was going to be her job due to the fact that was her profession. That was what she constructed her resume about all the unique issues she did in these resume spots, a Senator in New York, Secretary of State.
When you believe about it, the Fox News job give for Donald Trump tends to make a lot of sense if you are him. The Coronavirus is a curveball he got thrown that he under no circumstances anticipated getting to deal with. It took away all the wind in his sails of the powerful economy. All these issues that he would be riding a great deal much more very easily to re-election. I could see him quite very easily saying, “That’s okay. Even although the election was rigged and I lost it, I do not want it anyway. I’m going to go on and make a distinction right here at Fox News.” I really like to see a person in the press corps asked him about the job give. Whilst he will not confirm it, you know that his ego can not keep away from the light. He’s likely going to say, “They ought to want me to be CEO. Everyone is saying I would be good at it.” It will meet his need to have for self-worth so a great deal. It would be good if a person in the press corps asked him that query to confirm, “Is it accurate that you had been presented the CEO position at Fox News?”
Since of the connection, “You have a powerful connection with all the unique men and women more than there. You have met with them, interviewed them, helped them with their careers. Here’s the subsequent step for you. Are you going to take that step if for some cause you do not win the election? For what ever cause, will you take that job?” The query is that will he either say, “No, that is a rumor. I’m staying exactly where I am,” or will his self-worth, respect and his ego say, “Yeah. I could very easily do that job. I’m a quite clever guy. I can do these sorts of issues.”
It would be an exciting off-ramp for him to take language-smart due to the fact if he does not want to be there, he now has his out. He has his respectful step. Even if he does not get it, he nevertheless has his, “I’m going to fight the battle of fake news. The way to fight the battle fake news is to be in charge of true news. These are the true news men and women. I’m going to be on their side. They like me and they want me to be there with them. These are my colleagues. They all like me more than there. I could as effectively perform with men and women I like and offer leadership, wisdom, speaking points to them and give them guidance on what the true news is.” It would be an exciting shift to take spot. The press corps asking that query would be an significant query due to the fact it is like, “What are you going to do just after? The polls are like this and you are speaking about voter fraud like this. If you do not win, does this job give look exciting to you?” Let’s see if that is the way he can preserve his need to have for respect and make his transition in a way that is graceful.
If a particular person does not have a respectful transition to go to, they have a tendency to get stuck on hanging on to issues. That tends not to go so effectively due to the fact all issues need to have to transition. All issues need to have to alter hands. It is like what a distinction. This is one particular way to build some ease and build some chance for the person’s message. We do have a messaging propaganda issue. Any message that comes out has to be faced and dealt with. Even a no response is solely a yes response. “No, I haven’t heard something about that.” All of a sudden, it is like, “Would you be interested?” His answer is, “I am committed to becoming the president of the United States.” I can under no circumstances visualize him saying that.
I can not visualize him saying that either due to the fact I do not believe his heart is there. He would a great deal rather be on Television at Fox News or be in charge of it and assistance guide that ship. He would like that a complete lot much more. I do not believe he’s disciplined sufficient to deny it, not speak about it and not speculate. He constantly says, “We’ll see what occurs.” He constantly injects that uncertainty.
He does, and that tends to make it much more enticing. It tends to make it much more significant as an alternative of the straight turn down. A turndown, there’s a double-edged sword to it. It meets a need to have for truth, but it also dampens or eliminates dopamine. It is the renowned John McCain and the lady coming on the point that says, “He’s a Muslim.” He’s like, “No, he’s not.” He’s meeting the need to have for truth, but it is dampening the belief structure that a person else’s faith, the enthusiasm that John McCain was going to save us from a Muslim.
If John McCain had not denied it and let it hang out there, not embraced it necessarily or perpetuated, he could have won that election. That was a significant moment in that election. That was a surprise of however McCain’s personal producing that didn’t assistance him. I respect him due to the fact he had integrity. I respect him as an person. I want he have been president as an alternative of Donald Trump. These are potent moments in an election. If this story gets the light of day and somebody does asks President Donald Trump or they do not ask him, somebody is going to need to have to ask Fox News leadership, “Is there any truth to it?” They’re going to have to make some statements right here at some point.
They’re going to need to have to make a statement, “No, we didn’t give him something. There was no give discussion.” Meanwhile, we do not know if there’s any give discussion going on. That is exactly where the uncertainty of the discussion goes on. These are the issues that begin in our element of the grain of rice narrative about leadership is not committed. As soon as we get a sense that leadership is not committed, then all of a sudden, “Leadership is not committed,” can be an open narrative. It will be exciting. This is a communication show. Messaging about how specific messages influence our physiology and permit us to make choices has some predictability to it. The uncertainty has to do with that men and women do not know how to use the predictability. It is like, “Is this an integrity problem or is this a fairness problem?” These two issues can be quite unique. It appears like we got some stuff to do right here about this.
It will be quite exciting as we go by means of September and into October to see what surprises do take place. As they do at the time, we’re going to want to speak about these in a quite timely manner quite immediately and have some discussions about them, how the messages have been place out and then how you could counteract that message if you could or what the influence is. That will be quite exciting to watch.
It will be the flooding of messaging to then the confusion exactly where truth is to be identified. That is placing a lot of grains of rice about and not certain which one particular is the one particular that you need to have. Exactly where is that point of information or data? How can we build a small bit of wisdom or a small bit of insight out of it? That is a substantial element of the equation as well. Additional to come on this, Tom. I’m searching forward to the subsequent point. We’ll have a lot of issues to speak about subsequent time even from the spot of the wrap up of the Democratic convention. We can take a appear at as who got messages of truth to stick and who didn’t. There are some messages that did stick, some didn’t and some have been taking out of context. We can take a appear at that as well. That is useful.
Possibly also to appear at some of the rebuttals to some of the messages due to the fact what we’ve noticed is the president is not staying away from commenting on these issues. He’s applying his Twitter platform to attempt to rebut or make his personal counter-message stick. We ought to take a peek at that as well.
That enables us to assistance to see exactly where the dopamine is moving and exactly where the loyalty shifts and how a person’s bias gets activated and then captured. Additional to come. Tom, thanks a lot.